Saturday, April 5, 2008

Excess Capacity




A few years ago I read the following article.

http://dir.salon.com/story/tech/wire/2003/08/29/cars_and_drivers/index.html

In 2003, our country had a major turning point. For the first time in history, there were more automobiles in the United States than there were DRIVERS! What did I read into this article? I read that used car prices were going to plunge. Why? Because in a supply and demand model, if there is more supply than demand – prices go down!

In fact, this past week Yahoo had an article on the fastest depreciating automobiles. One item that stuck out on me was they were talking about the Kio Optima Minivan. This is a car that retails in the Mid $20k range if you buy new. It’s also one of the fastest depreciating autos in the country, losing more than 80% of it’s value over 5 years!!! To put it another way, the driver of the Kia Optima is paying about $416/month in depreciation costs just to drive that vehicle (that's on top of fuel, insurance and maintenance costs).
Even the "best" vehicles that maintain the highest resale value (think Honda and Toyota) lose approximate half their value in 5 years. That is a huge cost incurred by drivers of new cars, but if you are a buyer of used cars - this is to your advantage because you are able to keep more of your wealth.
I talked about autos in detail in my post “The Depreciation Monster” back in December (check it out).

I don’t want to sound like a broken record, but excess capacity is the problem with housing right now. There are simply too many houses/condos/lofts out there when compared to current demand.

It is very, very hard for me to pay full price for anything anymore. The big reason is that I know there are hundreds, if not thousands of people who I know bought something at full price, have never used it (or used it once or twice), and now want to sell it for pennies on the dollar.

Here’s another example. I am currently renting a house (I sold my house last year) which has a very dated kitchen. When we moved in, both the dishwasher and the refrigerator were original appliances and somewhere near 30 years old. Our landlord, who is a very old gentleman, was very resistant to replacing these artifacts. So my wife and I took it upon ourselves to find suitable replacements. Last year we found a 10 year old dishwasher in great shape at a garage sale. What did we pay for this dishwasher? It only cost us $25. We then went to our landlord and said we would give them the dishwasher if they would pay to install it. It was a done deal.

Then we set our sites on the refrigerator. Our landlord didn’t want to buy a new one. So we negotiated that we would replace the refrigerator if he gave us a break on the rent. He agreed, so this past weekend we finally found a suitable replacement. Someone in our neighborhood was selling their 5 year old refrigerator for $200. I went to see it and it was in great shape, I offered $175 and he accepted. This is a fridge that would easily cost about $600 if it was bought new.

Did you know that most retailers do have a policy that allow you to negotiate on the prices of what you purchase? Even big national chains like Best Buy allow it!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/business/23haggle.html?ref=todayspaper
Excess capacity is everywhere. Remember how hard you work for your money and use every tool at your disposal to get the best price.

No comments: