Inaguration Day

Back on June 6th, in my diatribe against George W. Bush I made a prediction that the Dow would be lower at the end of his presidency than it was at the beginning of his presidency.

However, I miscalculated when his presidency started. I said January 20th, 2000. In fact, George W. Bush became president on January 20th, 2001.

That makes a big difference because the Dow was lower in 2001 than it was in 2000. January 20th, 2001 was on the weekend so the last close before he took office was January 19th, 2001. On that day the Dow was at 10,587.

However, I AM STICKING TO MY PREDICTION! The Dow will be below 10,587 on election day this year.

I'm not really sticking my neck out here, The Dow closed today at 11,453 today, only 102 points higher than my previous prediction. We could cross that threshold tomorrow.

It was another great day to be betting against the American economy. Gold and Silver soared, dollar was down (benefitting my foreign currencies), oil was way up, the markets were way down (benefitting my Bear market funds). However, I must mention that every day the market goes down (both real estate and stock) makes me a little more bullish. I'm not moving into stocks or real estate yet, but we are getting closer. There is still a lot of excess that has to be wrung out.